Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 3.581872 3.903733 4.275726 4.747094 5.344099 6.100106 7.178812
2025-02-02 3.265172 3.694194 4.235701 5.005078 6.146364 7.956713 11.686509
2025-02-09 3.001401 3.466739 4.084661 5.028302 6.595632 9.619087 19.573652
2025-02-16 2.825396 3.314250 3.989172 5.082413 7.092898 11.887607 54.098236
2025-02-23 2.620621 3.094690 3.760533 4.868635 7.011178 12.781569 NaN
2025-03-02 2.511314 2.993733 3.688118 4.890712 7.405269 15.862101 NaN
2025-03-09 2.411569 2.895676 3.605876 4.875838 7.715561 19.803225 NaN
2025-03-16 2.303620 2.776864 3.478359 4.755324 7.725037 22.663122 NaN
2025-03-23 2.257851 2.744337 3.481685 4.877723 8.436672 39.369058 NaN
2025-03-30 2.159651 2.627793 3.339398 4.693763 8.191043 42.019363 NaN
2025-04-06 2.067045 2.515237 3.196608 4.493743 7.845233 40.434225 NaN
2025-04-13 1.998635 2.435849 3.103392 4.384151 7.758202 47.392806 NaN
2025-04-20 1.975906 2.425766 3.126443 4.521346 8.570132 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.969233 2.439526 3.190631 4.759968 10.007610 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.929648 2.399936 3.159395 4.781561 10.606747 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.896905 2.369197 3.141056 4.830247 11.430982 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.833877 2.288068 3.028132 4.637857 10.791602 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.803310 2.257179 3.003509 4.657770 11.434132 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.770439 2.221191 2.967336 4.644356 11.895211 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.727502 2.167591 2.896342 4.535493 11.643778 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.714412 2.161170 2.910905 4.646056 13.135675 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.668810 2.100795 2.822870 4.479768 12.286810 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.622795 2.038857 2.730395 4.298163 11.318013 NaN NaN